As Trump Wins White House, Hydrogen Stakeholders Brace for IRA’s Future

Donald Trump has passed the 270 electoral college vote threshold to win the keys to the White House and will become the 47th President of the United States.

President-Elect Trump secured his victory by defeating Vice-President Kamala Harris in the key swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, with a win in Wisconsin putting him over the threshold.

The Republicans have claimed victory in the Senate – the upper chamber of US Congress – while results for the House of Representatives remain undecided.

Addressing supporters at his campaign headquarters while his electoral college vote count still stood at 266, the former President told supporters that his win was the “greatest political movement of all time.”

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With Trump’s re-election, uncertainty now circles the future of hydrogen policy in the US. Trump’s previous climate policies, notably his executive order in 2017 to roll back several Obama-era climate regulations, have left many in the hydrogen sector on edge.

During his campaign, Trump pledged to significantly cut back the IRA’s climate incentives, a move that worried many clean energy advocates. His pointed remarks on hydrogen, often referencing mobility applications, and his close relationship with Elon Musk have fueled speculation about a shift in federal support for hydrogen initiatives.

However, insiders suggest that Trump will face significant hurdles in dismantling the IRA entirely. Even with a Republican-controlled House, attempts to scrap the IRA in full may prove difficult.

Potential Strategy Under New Administration

Sources tell H2 View that a new Trump administration could adopt an “all-of-the-above” strategy – making minor cuts to the IRA’s climate provisions while keeping select elements that align with Trump’s broader policy goals.

This approach could include maintaining the IRA’s 45V clean hydrogen production tax credit, albeit with potentially more flexible rules, which might appeal to the hydrogen industry but rankle environmental groups.

Focus on Job Creation and US Manufacturing

Job creation and US manufacturing, major themes in Trump’s campaign, align with the BIL’s H2Hub funding structure. With many hydrogen Hubs situated in Republican and swing states, local businesses and politicians may push for continued 45V support, recognizing the Hubs’ dependency on this credit to fully leverage their $8 billion in funding.

Some experts in Washington have suggested that if the new administration attempts to cut the IRA’s incentives for hydrogen entirely, legal battles may arise. For now, hydrogen stakeholders are waiting to see how deeply Trump’s policy “scalpel” will cut into the existing climate legislation and how these shifts could impact the sector’s long-term outlook.