Cummins Quit Electrolyzers. Electric Hydrogen Didn't.

Cummins just walked away from the electrolyzer business. A $458 million write-down, a full goodwill impairment, and a halt on all new commercial activity. For a company that once projected $400 million in annual electrolyzer revenue by 2025, that's a sharp reversal.

But while one major player exits, another is doubling down. Electric Hydrogen, a U.S.-based electrolyzer manufacturer, is deploying systems across Texas and expanding into Europe. The contrast tells a clear story.

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A Market Correction, Not a Market Collapse

The numbers paint a complicated picture. Global electrolyzer manufacturing capacity surged from roughly 10 GW in 2022 to over 50 GW by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. Actual deployment? Approximately 2 GW globally. That's a massive gap.

Cummins felt that pain directly. CEO Jennifer Rumsey told analysts that demand for green hydrogen had "dried up," pointing to policy rollbacks and fading incentives.

But the downturn isn't hitting every company equally. Electric Hydrogen has secured three major U.S. project contracts since mid-2024, all centered on producing exportable fuels rather than competing with cheap fossil gas domestically.

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The Cost Argument That Sets Electric Hydrogen Apart

Electric Hydrogen CEO Raffi Garabedian isn't shy about the challenge. He acknowledges roughly 18 more months of muted activity ahead. But he argues the real differentiator isn't surviving the downturn, it's what your system costs to install.

The company claims its total installed costs are less than half those of competing PEM systems from players like Siemens Energy and Thyssenkrupp Nucera. Its factory in Devens, Massachusetts builds proprietary electrolyzer stacks, while a modular approach to balance-of-plant equipment helps drive down total project costs.

Texas: Building for Export, Not Domestic Replacement

Green hydrogen in the U.S. remains roughly three times more expensive than gray hydrogen from fossil gas. Even with the 45V tax credit, the economics don't favor direct domestic competition.

That's why Electric Hydrogen's U.S. projects target e-fuels production for export markets, not domestic hydrogen buyers.

Infinium's Project Roadrunner in Pecos, Texas, is the flagship example. The facility will combine Electric Hydrogen's 100 MW electrolyzer with waste carbon and renewable wind power to produce sustainable aviation fuel. American Airlines, Citibank, and International Airlines Group have committed to long-term offtake, and Brookfield Asset Management is providing up to $1.1 billion in funding across Infinium's platform.

Two additional projects, with HIF Global and Synergen Green Energy on the Texas Gulf Coast, follow the same playbook: produce green fuels stateside using low-cost renewables, then sell into markets where carbon regulations create real demand.

Europe: Where the Next Wave of Orders Lives

European gas prices run three to four times higher than in the U.S., and EU policies mandate industrial carbon-cutting targets. That makes green hydrogen far more competitive there than in North America.

Electric Hydrogen is leaning into that reality. In 2024, Germany-based Uniper selected Electric Hydrogen for a 200 MW green hydrogen and ammonia facility targeting 2028 production. Garabedian said the company will soon announce a similarly scaled German project.

The European push comes with a trade-off. Garabedian acknowledged the company is moving significant supply chain operations to Europe, a pragmatic shift for an American manufacturer navigating a complicated global hydrogen market.

What the Shakeout Really Means

Market corrections separate companies with clear paths to revenue from those banking on demand that never materialized. Cummins built its electrolyzer strategy around a domestic green hydrogen boom that depended on stable policy support. When that evaporated, so did the business case.

Electric Hydrogen's approach looks different: secure offtakers first, target export markets, and compete on total installed cost. It's not guaranteed. The HIF Global and Synergen projects still need financing and permits to reach the finish line.

What's clear is that the green hydrogen industry is getting smaller, more focused, and more realistic. The companies that survive won't be the ones with the most manufacturing capacity. They'll be the ones who found buyers willing to pay.