Decarbonizing the Phosphate and Potash Fertilizer Industry

A practical roadmap to net zero for a sector the world’s food system depends on, balancing emissions reduction with food affordability, food security, and long-term resilience.

An EBRD initiative, developed by ERM and Systemiq, in collaboration with IFA.

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Phosphate and potash fertilizers are foundational to the global food system. Together with nitrogen, they underpin agricultural productivity, crop resilience, and food security worldwide. Yet their production is energy- and resource-intensive, tightly linked to industrial and energy systems, and increasingly exposed to climate, policy, and market risk.

As global demand for food continues to grow, the phosphate and potash (P&K) industry faces a defining challenge: to decouple production from emissions while maintaining food affordability and security of supply. Without action, the gap widens. Under business as usual, total sector emissions are set to reach 550 MtCO₂e per year by 2050, an approximate 25% increase from today, with limited scope for efficiency improvements alone to offset rising demand.

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The long-term direction of travel

This roadmap sets out the direction of travel for decarbonizing P&K fertilizer production towards 2050, in alignment with the Paris Agreement and the IPCC’s net zero goals. The analysis shows that deep emissions reductions - close to 89% of production emissions under a net zero by 2050 scenario - are technically feasible, though achieving them requires large-scale changes to production systems and regulation, involving significant economic and environmental trade-offs. Technologies required to decarbonize fuel use and address process emissions are at varying stages of maturity and require demonstration and scale-up.

The transition is not a single pathway, nor a uniform timeline. Regional starting points, production routes, technology readiness, and access to enabling infrastructure mean outcomes will vary considerably.

Four levers anchor the change ahead:

The case for near-term action

Decarbonization also brings tangible benefits: reduced exposure to volatile raw materials and energy inputs such as ammonia, sulphur, and fossil fuels, and improved access to concessional finance. Given the capital-intensive nature and long life of P&K assets, embedding decarbonization into existing operations now is essential to avoid lock-in, mitigate energy-market risk, and position the industry for more transformative change post-2035.

Interim emissions metrics should balance absolute reductions with food security and affordability. Sectoral emission intensity or asset-level approaches, driven by targeted, economically attractive near-term initiatives, better reflect the industry's complexity and food-security imperatives.

Investment and priority actions

Delivering this transition requires a step change in investment, from across the value chain and from governments. Globally, decarbonizing production emissions in line with a net zero by 2050 goal is estimated to require US$235–320 billion of investment in production assets, alongside substantial progress in technology deployment and policy support.

A shared call to action

The transition is challenging and it depends on coordinated action across the value chain:

• Agri-food conglomerates and downstream retailers to create market pull for low-carbon fertilizers.

• Producers to act early on novel technologies and embed decarbonization readiness into capital decisions;

• Financiers to mobilize capital at scale through blended and risk-sharing mechanisms;

• Policymakers to provide clear, credible long-term signals and invest in enabling infrastructure; and

• Standard setters to develop fertilizer-specific, food-secure target-setting guidance that enables flexible emission intensity- and asset-based pathways.

Achieving decarbonization at the pace and scale required will necessitate coordinated action across all of these groups.

“Decarbonizing the phosphate and potash industry is not only a climate imperative: it is a strategic opportunity to reinforce competitiveness, resilience, and food-system stability in a rapidly changing world.”

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