New Framework Aims to Guarantee Carbon Storage Stays Permanent

A coalition of climate organizations has introduced a new legal and financial framework designed to close one of the most stubborn gaps in the voluntary carbon market: ensuring that removed carbon actually stays out of the atmosphere for as long as policy requires.

American Forest Foundation (AFF), working alongside Beyond Alliance and RMI, released a white paper in June 2026 introducing "contracted durability," a structure that assigns clear liability for long-term carbon storage and pairs it with financial tools to handle any reversals.

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The paper identifies a persistent structural mismatch in the market: permanence requirements embedded in climate policy routinely exceed what carbon crediting programs actually guarantee. That gap creates ambiguity over who is responsible when stored carbon is re-released into the atmosphere, whether through wildfire, land use change, or other disruption.

Two Mechanisms at the Core

The contracted durability framework highlights two mechanisms capable of fulfilling both core functions, assigning ongoing liability and compensating for reversals that occur.

The first is horizontal stacking, which replaces a reversed credit with a new one, effectively chaining successive credits to cumulatively meet a permanence threshold. The second is a permanence trust, which pools a per-credit fee at issuance into an endowment-like fund calibrated to each project's reversal risk.

Existing tools like buffer pools and insurance can support contracted durability, the researchers say, but neither satisfies both requirements on its own. Buffer pools have faced growing scrutiny as wildfire risk intensifies, with California's compliance pool shrinking in net terms during 2023 and 2024 after cumulative wildfire reversals consumed a significant portion of reserves.

AFF's Permanence Trust Already in Motion

AFF isn't starting from zero. The foundation has already tested a version of this concept through its own Permanence Fund, active across more than 1,400 properties in 20 states. Funded by a fee on each credit sold, the fund is designed to prevent reversals, monitor storage after the crediting period ends, and remedy any losses that occur.

A broader feasibility study, conducted in partnership with carbon insurance specialist Kita and consultancy Climate Resilient Solutions, drew on an advisory group of more than 50 organizations spanning credit buyers, project developers, standards bodies, and insurers. AFF is now developing a pilot program, expected to launch in 2027.

Lynn Riley, lead scientist at AFF, said contracted durability "unlocks billions of dollars to scale carbon dioxide removal solutions."

Kyle Clark-Sutton, carbon removal lead at RMI, explained that the framework shifts market focus away from project type and toward whether climate outcomes are reliably sustained over time, a reorientation that could make a wider range of removal pathways investable.

Why It Matters for Carbon Markets in 2026

The timing matters. Carbon removal credit supply remains constrained heading into the second half of 2026, with new issuances not keeping pace with demand for high-integrity credits. Compliance demand is projected to surpass voluntary demand as early as 2027, driven by CORSIA Phase 1 and expanding domestic systems.

Without a consistent permanence standard, corporate buyers have lacked a concrete baseline to demand from project developers. Luke Pritchard, director of Beyond Alliance, said contracted durability gives buyers "something concrete to demand," which could accelerate purchasing decisions and channel capital toward projects that can demonstrate durable outcomes.

The framework is also being positioned in the context of European policy. Beyond Alliance has separately engaged EU policymakers on contracted durability mechanisms in relation to the Carbon Removal Certification Framework, which currently applies a binary "permanent vs. temporary" classification that critics say fails to reflect the actual spectrum of reversal risk across removal types.

The full contracted durability white paper is available through the American Forest Foundation and Beyond Alliance. The Permanence Trust feasibility report can be requested directly from AFF.