The hydrogen industry is hitting its stride with stronger fundamentals than ever before. While some projects face delays, the sector shows remarkable resilience with rising investments, policy support, and technological breakthroughs that position hydrogen as a cornerstone of global decarbonization efforts.
According to the International Energy Agency's latest Global Hydrogen Review 2025, low-emissions hydrogen production is set to reach significant milestones by 2030, driven by a wave of projects achieving final investment decisions and strong policy momentum worldwide.
The hydrogen sector's maturation is evident in key metrics that demonstrate growing investor confidence. Global hydrogen demand reached almost 100 Mt in 2024, representing steady 2% growth year-over-year. This expansion reflects robust industrial demand across refining, chemicals, ammonia, and methanol production.
What's particularly encouraging is the shift in project quality. Projects with final investment decisions increased by nearly 20% since last year, now representing 9% of the total pipeline to 2030. This signals that despite some project cancellations, the remaining initiatives have stronger commercial foundations.
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China has established itself as the driving force in electrolyser deployment and manufacturing. The country accounts for 65% of global electrolyser capacity that has been installed or reached FID, plus nearly 60% of global manufacturing capacity. This manufacturing scale creates competitive advantages that benefit global hydrogen adoption.
Meanwhile, Southeast Asia presents compelling growth opportunities. The region currently has 4 million tonnes per year of hydrogen demand in 2024, mostly from unabated natural gas. By 2030, announced projects could deliver approximately 480 kilotonnes per year of low-emissions hydrogen production.
Chinese electrolyser manufacturers have built over 20 GW per year of manufacturing capacity, well above current demand levels. While this creates near-term oversupply challenges, it demonstrates the sector's rapid scaling capabilities and positions the industry for explosive growth when demand accelerates.
This manufacturing capacity, combined with falling technology costs and strengthening renewable energy infrastructure, creates the foundation for hydrogen's cost competitiveness to improve significantly by 2030.
"Investor interest in hydrogen jumped at the start of this decade thanks to its potential to help countries deliver on their energy goals. The latest data indicates that the growth of new hydrogen technologies is under pressure due to economic headwinds and policy uncertainty, but we still see strong signs that their development is moving ahead globally."
Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency
The Hydrogen Council reports that more than $110 billion has been committed across 500+ clean hydrogen projects that have passed final investment decision, are under construction, or operational. This represents unprecedented capital commitment to the sector.
Over 50% of total investment in 2024 and 2025 targets hydrogen use in oil refining and industrial facilities with existing hydrogen demand. This strategic focus on established markets provides revenue certainty that supports project financing and reduces technology risk.
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Beyond traditional industrial uses, hydrogen is gaining traction in emerging applications. The maritime sector shows particular promise, with over 60 methanol-powered vessels currently operational and nearly 300 more on order books. This creates immediate demand for low-emissions hydrogen derivatives.
Transportation, power generation, and shipping/aviation fuels represent the next wave of hydrogen adoption. These applications offer larger addressable markets and stronger decarbonization impact, positioning hydrogen as essential infrastructure for net-zero goals.
"Global investment in clean hydrogen technologies is set to surge by 70% in 2025 to almost $8 billion despite a wave of high-profile project cancellations, as governments maintain policy support and developers push ahead with projects that have reached final investment decision."
While fossil hydrogen remains cheaper today, the cost gap is expected to narrow significantly by 2030. Falling technology costs, stronger renewables deployment, and emerging regulations create a convergence path that favors low-emissions hydrogen.
The current cost disadvantage reflects temporary factors including natural gas price declines. As renewable electricity costs continue falling and carbon pricing mechanisms strengthen, the economics of clean hydrogen become increasingly attractive.
| Region | 2024 Demand (Mtpa) | 2030 Potential (Mtpa) |
|---|---|---|
| Global Total | ~100 | 4.2 (FID projects) + 6 (policy-dependent) |
| Southeast Asia | 4 | 0.48 (announced projects) |
| China Manufacturing | 65% of global FID capacity | 20+ GW manufacturing capacity |
The hydrogen industry stands at an inflection point where strong fundamentals meet growing market recognition. Policy makers worldwide are implementing support schemes that create demand certainty, while infrastructure development accelerates to meet projected needs.
Low-emissions hydrogen production has grown 10% in 2024 and is on track to reach 1 million tonnes in 2025. This represents the early stages of exponential growth that positions hydrogen as a critical enabler of industrial decarbonization and energy security.
The combination of falling costs, rising policy support, and growing industrial demand creates a compelling investment thesis. With over $110 billion already committed and manufacturing capacity expanding rapidly, the hydrogen economy is transitioning from potential to reality across global markets.
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