The Hydrogen Stream: EIA Sees Mostly Gray Hydrogen in U.S. by 2050

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says US hydrogen production will increase about 80% by 2050, mainly from natural gas with minimal electrolyzer use, while key industry players advance large-scale green hydrogen projects and expand hydrogen vehicle support across global markets.

The EIA, an agency of the U.S. government, said that in most scenarios for the US hydrogen market, production will rise by about 80% in 2050 compared with 2024, with most hydrogen (H₂) coming from natural gas via steam methane reforming (SMR). “In most cases, we project less than 1% of hydrogen will be produced via electrolyzers, which use electricity to produce hydrogen from water, regardless of supportive policies,” said the agency, noting that its scenarios reflect conditions before the election of US President Donald Trump. The report said the volume of gray hydrogen produced in 2050 will depend on oil and gas prices, the chemicals market, and demand. The EIA added that hydrogen consumption rises mainly in the transportation sector when policy standards drive deployment of fuel cells in heavy-duty vehicles, but growth remains negligible without such policies.

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Statkraft has confirmed its plans for the Shetland Hydrogen Project 2 after agreeing to lease a site owned by Shetland Islands Council in the United Kingdom. “The proposed scheme is an electrolytic hydrogen to green ammonia production facility of up to 400 MW, on land adjacent to the disused Scatsta Airport near the existing Sullom Voe Oil Terminal and Shetland Gas Plant,” said the Norwegian energy company. It said the green ammonia will also be used for sustainable fuels for marine shipping and to decarbonize fertilizer production. Statkraft has three wind farms on Shetland in pre-construction: Mossy Hill near Lerwick, and Energy Isles and Beaw Field on Yell. “The construction of schemes like Shetland Hydrogen Project 2 will allow excess renewable power that cannot be utilized by the grid to be transformed into hydrogen.”

GeoPura has acquired assets in Denmark and hired personnel from Green Hydrogen Systems (GHS), laying the groundwork for European expansion. Under the agreement, GeoPura has taken ownership of all spare parts, tools, and fixtures related to the A-Series electrolyzer platform. “In addition, former GHS employees with deep technical expertise in the support, design, and operation of A-Series electrolyzers have joined the GeoPura team,” said the British company.

Horizon Fuel Cell Group said it has acquired the intellectual property of US-based Hyzon Motors to continue serving Hyzon’s hydrogen vehicle customers in the United States, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. “Hydrogen is the ultimate clean solution for long-haul transportation and other heavy vehicle operations, and will soon be more financially attractive than diesel or battery alternatives,” said George Gu, chairman of Horizon Fuel Cell Group.

Hyundai Motor Group said it has, in partnership with Neom’s energy and water subsidiary Enowa, completed a hydrogen mobility trial in Trojena, in the mountains of Neom. “The group operated its hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) coach bus, Universe, on a mountainous route in Trojena, reaching elevations of up to 2,080 meters and gradients of 24%. Simulating passenger transport from Neom’s future core business district to Trojena, the trial demonstrated vehicle performance and the practicality of hydrogen in high-altitude conditions,” said Hyundai Motor. The South Korean group has begun commercial sales of the 2026 model of its Universe fuel-cell bus, which has a range of up to 960.4 kilometers.

Rolls-Royce has formed a strategic partnership with Germany’s Ineratec to replace fossil diesel in data centers’ emergency power systems with synthetic fuels produced from renewable hydrogen and CO₂. “The companies intend to use Ineratec’s synthetic e-Diesel for generators. Initially, the focus will be on German data centers,” said Ineratec, adding that the synthetic fuels are a cost-efficient solution.