Why Aviation Must Look to the Sky for Sustainable Fuel

Aviation burns through nearly a gigaton of CO₂ annually, accounting for 2.5% of global emissions. While electric and hydrogen aircraft grab headlines, they can't handle long-haul flights anytime soon. That leaves sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as aviation's only realistic path to net-zero by 2050.

But here's the problem: current SAF production relies heavily on crops, waste oils, and agricultural residues. These biogenic feedstocks have hard limits that make aviation's ambitious decarbonization targets extremely challenging to achieve.

The Mathematics of Impossible SAF Targets

The EU has set aggressive SAF blending mandates: 2% this year, climbing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. But meeting these targets through biogenic sources alone faces significant land use constraints.

IATA's latest data shows SAF production doubled to 1 million tonnes in 2024, yet this represents just 0.3% of global jet fuel consumption. Even optimistic projections for 2025 put SAF at only 0.7% of total fuel needs.

The fundamental constraint isn't just cost or technology. It's feedstock availability. Biogenic sources compete directly with food production, and even maximizing every available biological source globally falls short of the gigatons needed by 2050.

Direct Air Capture: Mining the Atmosphere

Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology offers a fundamentally different approach. Instead of competing for limited biological feedstocks, DAC pulls CO₂ directly from the atmosphere to create e-SAF through processes like Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.

The key advantage? Unlimited feedstock. The atmosphere contains all the CO₂ aviation needs, creating a truly circular carbon economy where today's emissions become tomorrow's fuel.

>> RELATED: US SAF Production Hits Critical 30,000 BPD Milestone

Infrastructure Compatibility Advantage

Unlike hydrogen or electric alternatives requiring complete infrastructure overhauls, e-SAF works with existing fuel systems. Some airports are already preparing e-fuel supply chains, using current storage tanks, pipelines, and fueling equipment.

Companies are developing electrochemical DAC systems that can significantly reduce energy consumption compared to traditional thermal-based approaches. These innovations eliminate high-temperature processes and chemical solvents, potentially reducing both operational costs and capital requirements.

Innovation Driving Down Costs

Traditional DAC technologies have struggled with high energy requirements. New approaches are working to reduce these energy demands significantly, following the same innovation curve that brought down costs in other clean technologies like batteries and solar panels over the past decade.

The challenge remains significant for the entire e-SAF value chain, which requires substantial energy inputs across atmospheric CO₂ capture, green hydrogen production, and fuel synthesis. However, mass manufacturing potential using standard materials creates a pathway toward improved economics.

>> In Other News: Clean Hydrogen Production Still Growing, but Slower Than Before

Policy Framework for Scale

The EU's RefuelEU Aviation regulation already recognizes the distinction between biogenic SAF and e-SAF from direct air capture. This acknowledgment that atmospheric carbon represents a fundamentally different resource with different potential creates the regulatory foundation for scaling.

Three critical policy developments can accelerate atmospheric SAF adoption:

1. Supply and Demand Incentives

Governments need coordinated policies that support both e-SAF production scaling and guaranteed offtake agreements. This reduces investor risk and accelerates deployment timelines.

2. Climate-Impact Fuel Taxation

Aviation fuels should be taxed according to their actual climate impact. This creates market-based incentives for atmospheric carbon fuels while recognizing that only a small minority of the global population flies regularly.

3. Aviation as Lead Market

Positioning aviation as a lead market for nascent decarbonization technologies can generate the market pull needed to bring efficient operations and best-in-class technologies to commercial scale.

The Sky as Fuel Source

Aviation needs every sustainable fuel source available. But only atmospheric carbon offers the potential for unlimited scale required for the industry's net-zero ambitions.

The mathematics are clear: biogenic feedstocks face significant scaling constraints. The atmosphere contains abundant carbon for creating a circular system where emissions can potentially become fuel.

IATA member airlines continue to drive demand for SAF solutions. The challenge now is scaling atmospheric carbon capture technologies to meet growing demand without competing for agricultural land or food resources.

Aviation's sustainable future depends on recognizing this fundamental constraint and investing accordingly. The sky itself must become our primary fuel source, not as a distant aspiration, but as an immediate infrastructure priority. The plants needed for 2040 operations must break ground today.