A New OAE Model Intercomparison Project Has Launched

Today, we’re announcing a new project to enhance researchers’ ability to compare ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) modeling results. Through coordinated multi-model studies, the Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Model Intercomparison Project (OAEMIP) aims to deepen our understanding of how OAE’s efficiency for large-scale carbon removal varies, depending on the location and seasonal timing of OAE. This project is supported by funding from Carbon to Sea and Google.

The lack of comparability across existing OAE model experiments is currently one of the biggest challenges scientists face in understanding and communicating the potential efficacy of OAE. While early research suggests OAE is an effective ocean-based carbon removal (oCDR) approach, various models can disagree on how efficient OAE is. Differences between the models, as well as the experiment designs simulating OAE, make data comparison between projects difficult. This ultimately hinders research and slows responsible development of high quality carbon credit markets.

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Coordinated multi-model studies, commonly called model intercomparison projects, are a common approach to assessing model uncertainty. They can be used to explore the simulated range of model behaviours; to isolate the strengths and weaknesses of different models in a controlled setting; and to interpret, through idealized experiments, inter-model differences. Carefully designed experiments can also offer a way to identify model shortcomings and areas to prioritize for model improvement.

Carbon to Sea and Google are funding a three-year, two-tiered research project using standard methods for global-scale OAE modeling experiments. The goal of this work is to set a high standard for scientific rigor in the emerging OAE field; provide more certainty about the efficiency of OAE in order to encourage greater investment and collaboration to support future research endeavors; improve public license and market confidence in OAE; and enable early movers to more confidently participate in emerging credit markets.

As a first step in the project, the researchers will publish an article describing the experimental modeling protocols and the scientific questions that they are designed to answer. This will inform the first phase of the project, which will aim to better understand how efficient OAE is at removing carbon from the atmosphere. This will include determining which characteristics of the OAE-induced carbon dioxide uptake curve have inter-model variance, whether lower resolution modeling is consistent with higher fidelity models, and what simulated processes drive these differences. The study will be conducted at five locations to provide consistent comparison, while also accounting for a range of oceanographic conditions that affect efficiency.

The second phase of the project will account for future emissions scenario effects, the impact of simultaneous deployment of other CDR approaches, and model-uncertainty in the long-term and with respect to larger scale carbon cycle-climate effects. Following this phase, the researchers will publish their findings with recommendations on how to improve the simulation of OAE.

Carbon to Sea and Google will be funding two candidates with PhDs in ocean sciences and extensive experience in ocean modeling practice to lead this project. A steering committee will advise the project throughout its existence in order to ensure safety, transparency, and efficacy. Five modeling groups have already agreed to participate in the project and additional global ocean or Earth system modeling groups are encouraged to join.

We look forward to seeing what new scientific advancements this project will make possible. More information on the fellowship positions and how modeling groups can learn more about participating in the project or hosting one of the research fellows will be posted here soon.