G20's Carbon Removal Gap Opens $1 Trillion Door

The world's largest economies just revealed something unexpected about their carbon removal plans. They barely have any.

A new analysis from the State of Carbon Dioxide Removal shows G20 countries pledged to increase carbon dioxide removal by only 214 to 265 million tons per year by 2030. That's a tiny bump from today's roughly 2 billion tons annually. For context, meeting climate goals requires scaling to 7 to 9 billion tons per year by 2050.

This massive pledge gap isn't a crisis for the carbon removal industry. It's the opening they've been waiting for.

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The Numbers Tell a Different Story

Only seven G20 members submitted updated 2035 climate pledges by September 2025: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Most won't say how much CDR they'll actually deliver.

Nine G20 members haven't clarified how land-based removals like afforestation contribute to their targets. Just one country, the UK, specified contributions from novel carbon removal technologies, mainly through BECCS at 23 million tons per year by 2035.

China has a forest stock target implying an additional 48 million tons of removals by 2030. India projects it will exceed its forest and tree cover target. But the European Union is off track to meet its land sink goal, and three countries expect decreases in their current land-based removals.

Why This Opens Doors for Industry

When governments fail to lead, the private sector steps up. The carbon removal market already proved this in Q1 2025 when companies like Google and Microsoft drove record purchase volumes without waiting for policy clarity.

That delay creates urgency for private investment. First movers gain a competitive advantage in manufacturing, project development, and credit generation. When policy lags, innovation leads.

North America's Shifting Landscape

The United States submitted a climate pledge in late 2024, but will formally withdraw from the Paris Agreement in January 2026. After that, the U.S. pledge becomes meaningless in international frameworks.

The Trump administration already moved to reverse federal climate policies, including Inflation Reduction Act provisions that supported carbon removal. This doesn't kill the industry. It redirects it.

State-level action is filling federal gaps faster than expected. California, Texas, Louisiana, and Wyoming are advancing Class VI permitting and storage infrastructure. Private capital is flowing to regional hydrogen hubs and carbon removal projects regardless of federal coordination.

Three Countries Pass Credibility Test

The report assessed G20 members on five credibility criteria. Do they provide transparency on CDR? Set net zero targets in law? Implement CDR policies? Produce sector-level projections? Publish detailed implementation plans?

Only three meet all criteria: the European Union, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

The EU set its land sink removal goal into law alongside its net zero target. It published analysis on implementation and identified measures to scale conventional and novel CDR through BECCS.

Meeting credibility criteria doesn't guarantee success, though. Latest projections show the EU falling far off track from its LULUCF target. Even with strong policy frameworks, execution remains the challenge.

Countries with larger potential contributions, like China, India, and Indonesia, haven't put their announced net zero targets into law or published detailed scaling plans. That's where the biggest opportunity gap exists.

Corporate Buyers Step Into Vacuum

When government pledges lack detail or ambition, corporate climate commitments become the primary demand driver. The voluntary carbon market is already proving this.

Here's what's driving private sector momentum:

1. AI emissions growth: Data centers need carbon removal to offset expanding energy demands
2. Corporate net zero targets: Companies made public commitments and need credits to deliver
3. Supply chain pressure: Major buyers requiring suppliers to decarbonize
4. First mover advantage: Early investments lock in preferred suppliers and lower prices

Q1 2025 saw record carbon removal purchases. Google and Microsoft drove 64% of total carbon credit purchases. Google alone secured 200,000 tons through biochar and bio-oil deals in a single quarter.

This isn't charity. It's strategy. Companies locking in carbon removal capacity now are positioning for regulatory requirements that will eventually come, regardless of current government pledges.

Technology Scaling Without Policy Support

The carbon removal industry doesn't need perfect policy to advance. It needs demand. Corporate buyers are providing that.

Technologies scaling fastest right now:

• Biochar: Cost-effective at $50-150 per ton, 290 buyers since 2022
• Enhanced rock weathering: Multiple Microsoft deals in 2025
• BECCS: Delivering continuous renewable energy plus carbon removal
• Direct ocean capture: Emerging as more efficient than direct air capture

Direct ocean capture technologies are gaining traction because ocean CO2 concentrations are 150 times higher than atmospheric levels. This makes capture more efficient and potentially cheaper at scale.

Meanwhile, hybrid direct air capture systems are solving multiple problems at once, removing CO2 while producing fresh water. These dual-benefit technologies are attracting investor attention even without government support.

Five-Year Window for Leadership

The report authors call for near-term policy action within the next five years. That's the window for establishing supply chains, training workforces, building demonstration projects, and proving economics.

Carley C. Reynolds, Lead Author at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said: "Governments have a short window to turn vague pledges into actionable plans."

But the industry isn't waiting for governments to figure it out. Companies are building that infrastructure now. State governments are advancing permitting. Regional hydrogen hubs are integrating carbon capture into their planning.

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Where the Real Action Happens

Weak G20 pledges clarify where carbon removal leadership will come from. Not from international agreements. From corporate buyers, state governments, and private capital, willing to move faster than federal coordination.

The policy vacuum in North America doesn't slow the technology down. It shifts who controls the buildout. States with favorable geology and permitting are becoming carbon removal hubs regardless of federal policy.

Companies securing carbon removal capacity now are positioning for a future where every major economy will eventually need gigatons of removal to meet climate targets. The G20 report makes clear that those targets aren't backed by credible plans yet. That's not the industry's problem to solve. It's their opportunity to capture.