GPI Atlas: Where US Gas Power and Carbon Capture Can Work

A new national atlas from the Great Plains Institute (GPI) identifies where natural gas power generation paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be most effectively deployed across the United States. The analysis pinpoints approximately 54,000 square kilometers of highly suitable land and 2.3 million square kilometers of moderately high suitability. It offers a data-driven foundation for planning low-emission power infrastructure during a period of rapid electricity demand growth.

Why Did GPI Release This Atlas Now?

The timing is deliberate. US electricity consumption is expected to climb between 35% and 50% by 2040, according to a 2025 study by the American Clean Power Association. That growth is tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, and the electrification of industry and transportation.

"Electricity demand is rising quickly, and leaders across the public and private sectors are being asked to ensure reliability and affordability while also reducing emissions. Tools like this help identify where carbon management can be deployed most effectively, grounding those decisions in data, infrastructure realities, and community context."

Patrice Lahlum, Vice President of Industrial Innovation and Carbon Management, Great Plains Institute

>> In Other News: Anew Climate And Aurora Sustainable Lands Issue Dynamic Baseline Credits To JPMorganChase

Natural gas currently fills about 40% of US electricity demand, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Replacing all of it overnight isn't realistic. Pairing gas-fired power with carbon capture is a practical path to lowering emissions without sacrificing grid reliability.

The atlas is titled the Atlas of Natural Gas Power with Carbon Capture and Storage. It's the latest in a series of GPI siting tools that includes earlier resources on direct air capture technology and carbon and hydrogen hubs. This edition focuses specifically on NG + CCS for power generation.

How Does the Atlas Evaluate Siting Suitability?

The atlas uses a national, data-driven multi-criteria decision analysis. It doesn't rely on a single factor. Instead, it weighs multiple conditions that together determine whether a site can support a natural gas power plant with integrated carbon capture.

The siting criteria include:

• Proximity to natural gas resources and pipelines
• Access to CO2 storage formations, such as saline aquifers and depleted reservoirs
• Existing infrastructure that could support CCS integration
• Land and water availability
• Distance to electricity demand centers

The atlas offers multiple scenarios. Each scenario shifts the weighting based on what matters most to a developer or community. Priorities might include minimizing transport costs, maximizing storage proximity, or serving a specific industrial corridor.

>> RELATED: The Companies Driving Global CCUS Expansion

Where Does the US Have the Most Potential for NG + CCS?

The Gulf Coast, West Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of the Midwest emerge as top-priority regions, according to the GPI analysis. These areas score highest because they combine natural gas access, favorable geology for CO2 storage, and established energy infrastructure.

The Gulf Coast has been a focal point for large-scale carbon storage development. Its proximity to major industrial emitters and existing pipeline and port networks give it a structural advantage. The Bayou Bend CCS project is a joint venture between Chevron (50% and operator), Equinor (25%), and TotalEnergies (25%), spanning nearly 140,000 acres in Southeast Texas. It's one of the clearest examples of the region's storage buildout already underway.

Highly suitable land totals approximately 54,000 square kilometers across the country. Moderately high suitability land reaches approximately 2.3 million square kilometers, indicating a wide geographic spread of potential deployment beyond the obvious hotspots.

Why Is CO2 Storage Access the Most Critical Factor?

The atlas is clear: access to CO2 storage is the central determinant of project viability. Without a nearby storage site, even a well-positioned gas plant with strong capture technology faces a major logistical and economic barrier.

Transport infrastructure is a recurring theme in the analysis. In regions with strong electricity demand and natural gas access but limited storage geology, CO2 pipelines and transport networks become the enabling layer. Recent CCUS momentum shows projects increasingly built around hub-and-spoke models. Multiple emitters share storage access via shared infrastructure, distributing costs and maximizing utilization.

As of Q1 2025, just over 50 million metric tonnes of CO2 capture and storage capacity was operational globally, according to the IEA's CCUS Projects Database. More than 60% of that operational capacity remains at natural gas processing facilities. NG + CCS for power generation is the next frontier.

>> RELATED: US Carbon Capture Race: $77B Industry Shifts Global Balance

"We're in a unique position to provide low-carbon power at large scale on a very competitive and accelerated timeline."

Dan Ammann, President, ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions

How Does the Data Center Boom Change the NG + CCS Equation?

Data centers have emerged as a major driver of new electricity demand. Globally, data centers are projected to consume more electricity by 2030 than Japan does today, according to the IEA. US hyperscale facilities increasingly need grid-independent, dispatchable power that also meets low-carbon commitments.

This is where natural gas power with carbon capture finds a ready market. ExxonMobil is already in front-end engineering design for gas-fired CCS power plants targeting data center customers. The company estimates data centers could represent up to 20% of its total addressable CCS market by 2050. The GPI atlas gives developers a geographic framework for determining where those projects are most viable.

The atlas also notes that natural gas is being considered for on-site, behind-the-meter power generation at new data facilities. Pairing that power with carbon capture lets operators meet both reliability and emissions reduction targets at the same time.

What Is This Atlas Designed to Do, and What Isn't It?

GPI is explicit that the atlas is a screening tool, not a siting guide. It's built for early-stage planning. Policy makers, developers, and grid operators can use it to narrow down regions worth a closer look. It won't replace permitting work, environmental review, land ownership analysis, or community engagement.

GPI also offers a separate Decision Support Tool for carbon management communities. It provides shared, accessible data to support site-specific decisions at the local level. The atlas handles national-scale screening. The decision tool handles project-level detail. The two are designed to work together.

The US has more than 270 publicly announced carbon capture projects totaling $77.5 billion in capital investment, as tracked in ongoing federal and industry analysis. Moving those projects from announced to operational requires the geographic clarity tools like this atlas are designed to provide.

The full atlas and interactive maps are available at carboncaptureready.betterenergy.org. The Carbon Capture Coalition, which GPI convenes, published the atlas announcement for its member network of utilities, energy providers, and planners navigating rapidly rising electricity demand.

What the Atlas Signals for the Road Ahead

The US has a resource advantage in NG + CCS. It has the geology, the gas supply, the infrastructure, and a policy framework built around the 45Q tax credit. What it has lacked is a nationally consistent picture of where to focus first. The GPI atlas addresses that gap directly.

US electricity demand is set to rise 35% to 50% by 2040. The pressure to develop clean, reliable, dispatchable power is intensifying. New financing models for carbon capture and offshore CO2 storage development in the Gulf are building the commercial infrastructure to match that ambition. The atlas gives all of it a geographic foundation to build from.